Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. To walk countries away from war we have concluded that statesmanship finds more purchase on risk aversion than on hawkishness. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. by Robert Farley L Key Point: Escalation spirals are hard to. How Australia's way of life could change if we're pulled into war with "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. Mr. Xi has championed . And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. If the US went to war with China, who would win? Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". These threats from nature pose potentially disastrous outcomes that look inevitable; we have yet to find the statesmen to deal effectively with them. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/what-would-war-with-china-look-like-for-australia-part-1/101328632, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article, Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman, Looking deeper at China's military strategy, The conversation we need to have about China, These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. We should not assume it will attempt this.". He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". "For its part, Australia is casualty averse, as it should be. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. No emergency stockpiles have been established onshore. The US could also use submarines and stealth aircraft to attack Chinas shipping fleet in the Indian Ocean to cripple its economic lifelines in times of a crisis. A war with China over Taiwan, awful as that would be, involves no Australian national interests. "Given the rate at which the Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035. He has served in a number of Australian government agencies and been a senior adviser to several Australian defense ministers. "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). Australia had long maintained it didn't have to choose. Hugh White,who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australias support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.. If the US went to war with China, who would win? There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". "China can impose huge costs on the US and perhaps indefinitely deny air control to the US in that zone. "The forces are relatively evenly matched, because USadvantages in technology are balanced by China's advantages in geography fighting close to home. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. "They're aggressively expanding their influence," he said. "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. "The defence of Taiwan is predicated on a Chinese invasion but if China's main effort is not an invasion but a blockade, then what? Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. The last time Chinese troops saw direct action was 1979 when China launched a costly month-long war against Vietnam to teach it a lesson in retaliation for Hanois actions in south-east Asia. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. "But it is an entirely different story with China. Were working to restore it. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. The Australian army is extremely careful to preserve the force-in-being by keeping casualties to a minimum. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. The Pentagon views China as the "pacing threat," Gen. John "Mike" Murray, head of Army Futures Command, said March 17 during remarks at the Association of the United States Army's virtual Global Force Next conference. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. "Relatively, we are a small country today and becoming even smaller in comparison to the company we keep. "Even so, the UN has not been able to avert war. March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. And hes repeatedly expressed his willingness to go to war to remove it. They may withhold their offensive cyber power to prevent the US learning their operations. The US must operate from a few exposed facilities such as Okinawa and Guam. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. Fundamentally, it would follow the strategic prescriptions of Sun Tzu in The Art of War. "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. Mr. Xi has championed Chinas political warfare capabilities as a magic weapon.. But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. And Beijing has the advantage of geography. There are plenty of nations with grievances against China for its South China Sea policy. "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. It would not require the assent of the Governor General and is entirely in the hands of the prime minister of the day.